Seoul: South Korea's exports are projected to grow by 2.2 percent in 2025, fueled by the strong performance of premium semiconductor products, although potential shifts in U.S. trade policy could dampen growth, according to a state-run think tank. The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) released a report indicating a deceleration from the 8.4 percent growth anticipated for 2024.According to Yonhap News Agency, the KIET report highlights that while exports are expected to slow due to the base effect, the recovery in major IT sectors, such as semiconductors, will continue to bolster outbound shipments. The country's trade surplus is predicted to rise to US$48.7 billion, compared to $47.4 billion projected for the current year. However, potential tariff policies under the new Donald Trump administration could negatively affect South Korea's automobile exports to the United States, significantly influencing overall export growth.Trump's proposed tariffs, ranging from 10 to 20 percent on all imported goods, could pose a challenge. Should the export targets be met, South Korea's annual shipments would surpass the US$700 billion mark for the first time, with this year's exports estimated at $685.5 billion. Imports are expected to increase by 2.1 percent on-year in 2025, contrasting with an anticipated 0.7 percent decline in 2024. The report attributes the rise in imports to stable foreign exchange rates and global crude prices, alongside a greater demand for intermediate goods due to stronger exports.The automobile sector, including auto parts, may see a 2.7 percent decline in exports due to reduced demand in major export destinations and expanded overseas production. Conversely, the semiconductor industry is anticipated to experience an 8.5 percent growth due to increasing demand for IT products and a recovery in global chip prices. However, exports of batteries are expected to drop by 6.7 percent due to a slowdown in global demand for electric vehicles.The KIET forecasts economic growth o f 2.1 percent for 2025, slightly lower than this year's estimate of 2.2 percent. This projection aligns with the Bank of Korea's August estimate but is slightly above the International Monetary Fund's 2 percent forecast. Despite sluggish investment in the construction sector, export growth, together with recovering domestic consumption and facility investment, is expected to drive overall economic growth to 2.1 percent. The KIET projects that economic growth will reach 1.9 percent in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase to 2.2 percent in the latter half of the year.
- October 12, 2026
