Bond Experts Predict Market Rates to Become More Volatile in Oct.: Survey


Seoul: Bond traders, analysts and fund managers in South Korea expect market interest rates to become more volatile next month, an industry survey showed Tuesday.



According to Yonhap News Agency, the survey conducted by the Korea Financial Investment Association (KOFIA) on 100 experts from the bond sector revealed that 53 percent of respondents anticipated market interest rates to change in October, while the remaining 47 percent believed the rates would likely remain steady.



Market interest rate refers to the rate on deposits and other investments, such as funds. It is not fixed and is influenced by central bank policies, inflation expectations, and the supply and demand for capital. Of all respondents, 34 percent said they expect market interest rates to fall in October, an increase of 2 percentage points from a month earlier.



Those who predicted market interest rates to rise next month stood at 19 percent, up 5 percentage points over the cited period. “The proportion of respondents forecasting increases and decreases in market rates both rose from a month earlier, due to monetary policy-related uncertainties and global tightening of interest rates,” KOFIA said.



Such results suggest a growing volatility in market interest rates, the association added. Meanwhile, 34 percent of respondents expected prices to rise in the coming month, compared with 4 percent who said prices would fall.



Regarding the local currency, 20 percent of respondents predicted that the Korean won would depreciate against the U.S. dollar in October, citing growing uncertainties regarding trade negotiations with the United States. Those who expected the opposite accounted for 11 percent.



The survey was conducted among 100 professionals in the bond management industry, including traders, analysts, and fund managers, from Sept. 19 to Sept. 24.