Seoul: U.S. President Donald Trump is anticipated to shift his "America First" agenda towards South Korea, potentially demanding an increased financial contribution from Seoul for the U.S. military presence in the region, experts cautioned following his inaugural speech to Congress.
According to Yonhap News Agency, Trump, during his address to Congress, accused South Korea of imposing high tariffs despite the United States' significant military contributions to South Korean defense. "South Korea's average tariff is four times higher. Think of that, four times higher. And we give so much help militarily and in so many other ways to South Korea," Trump remarked, underscoring his perception of South Korea as an unfair trade partner.
While the basis for Trump's claims remains unclear, particularly given the existing free trade agreement between the two nations and South Korea's generally low tariffs, his comments suggest a potential shift in focus towards renegotiating the bilateral defense cost-sharing agreement. Security experts predict that this could involve pressuring Seoul to reconsider the U.S. military's role in the country.
The current defense cost-sharing deal, finalized in October prior to Trump's return to office, outlines South Korea's financial responsibility for the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed there. Under the Special Measures Agreement, this is set at 1.52 trillion won (approximately US$1.05 billion) in 2026, marking an 8.3 percent increase from 2025.
Kim Hyun-wook, director of the Sejong Institute, expressed concerns that Trump's plans for South Korea might involve leveraging tariffs to influence Korean companies to relocate their operations to the United States. However, Kim suggested that Trump may not seek a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea, particularly as he aims to reengage with North Korea, which could alter security dynamics in the region.
Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University, highlighted the likelihood of imminent tariff pressures on South Korea and suggested that Seoul might have to shoulder a larger share of the defense costs. He recommended that South Korea consider strategies similar to Japan's, such as reducing trade surpluses with the U.S. and increasing defense expenditures, aligning with Trump's expectations.
Yang Wook, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, speculated that the Trump administration might begin focusing on South Korea once the Ukraine conflict subsides. Despite Trump's dissatisfaction with the U.S. military presence in South Korea, a complete withdrawal seems unlikely due to associated costs.
"In any case, developing a grudge from the U.S. is not at all helpful. In the end, a picture of South Korea and U.S. cooperating should be painted ... especially in a way Trump could be proud of," Yang concluded.