Iran Conflict Exposes Asia’s Energy Vulnerabilities and Strains Pacific Alliances

Tokyo: When war erupts in the Middle East, the cost is borne by the countries nearest to the conflict, as well as by those not involved. The US and Israel carried out attacks on Iran late last month while negotiations were still in progress. This has led to a sudden and severe energy crisis in Japan, South Korea, and China, especially after Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade. This conflict is not just a problem for one area but a significant test for the global energy order, with the Asia-Pacific region being the most affected.According to TRTworld.com, the numbers alone are stark. In 2024, most of the oil and gas that passed through the Strait of Hormuz was bound for Asia. Japan sources approximately 90 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, with most of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea gets about 70 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, and 95 percent of that passes through Hormuz. As of March 17, more t han two weeks after the start of the blockade, over 150 oil tankers were still stuck in the Gulf. On March 16, the Japanese government began releasing a substantial quantity of strategic oil reserves, amounting to 80 million barrels, as an emergency measure expected to last only about 45 days.The problem is compounded by the limited options available. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only countries with pipelines that could be used to send oil elsewhere while the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, capable of transporting between 3.5 and 5.5 million barrels of oil daily. This is a small amount compared to the 20 million barrels that usually pass through Hormuz each day. Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have no alternatives, so even in the best-case scenario, two-thirds of the current Gulf crude exports will still need to use Hormuz.The economic consequences are cascading. The price of Brent crude oil rose by about 15 percent in the first days of the conflict, then climbed further to $120 a barrel as the conflict worsened . In the worst-case scenario, it is predicted that prices could reach $150 or more. If the price of crude oil stays between $120 and $130 per barrel, Japan's GDP in 2026 could decrease by 0.6 percent. South Korea has already taken steps to implement a 100 trillion won programme to stabilize the market amid war-related uncertainty. China possesses a large oil supply, which should help protect it from short-term problems.The political impact of this crisis has been especially dramatic in Japan. On 15 March, Trump wrote on social media that countries like Japan, South Korea, France, and the United Kingdom should send warships to the area to make the Hormuz Strait safer. The request was made a few days before PM Sanae Takaichi was due to visit Washington. Takaichi faces challenges as she seeks to encourage Japan to build a stronger military to address rising international tensions. Trump emphasized Japan's reliance on oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, urging Japan to take an active role.The most signi ficant long-term consequence of this war could be its effect on the security framework of the Indo-Pacific region. After a series of drone and missile strikes by Iran on Israel and other Gulf countries, the US started redeploying THAAD and Patriot missile defence systems from South Korea to the Middle East to strengthen defences there. This move contradicts previous reassurances given by administration officials. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung acknowledged the redeployment and stated that although Seoul had conveyed its concerns to Washington, it had limited ability to block the move.Beyond the immediate concern about military deterrence regarding North Korea, there is also the issue of diplomatic relations with China. Reintroducing THAAD to South Korea would be both logistically challenging and politically sensitive due to backlash from its 2017 deployment. Seoul is discovering that any decline in American reliability in the Indo-Pacific region weakens confidence in Washington and reinforces China's narrative that the US is unwilling to commit to the region when its interests shift elsewhere.The war has highlighted the strategic autonomy possessed by countries like Trkiye, which has a framework for navigating great-power competition while retaining strategic autonomy. Trkiye's energy architecture, including its pipeline network and offshore drilling partnerships, offers a model for strategic leverage. Japan and South Korea, heavily reliant on their alliances with the US, are now facing the costs of dependency exposed by the Hormuz crisis. Developing greater autonomy is suggested as a way forward, allowing for engagement with multiple global partners.The global response to energy crises typically involves diversification and structural reforms. However, the current scale of dependence is large enough to produce systemic consequences. A prolonged closure could lead to a significant decline in global LNG supply. This war has made it undeniable that energy security and geopolitical architecture cannot be managed as separate policy domains, highlighting the interconnectedness of energy dependence and alliance commitments in the Indo-Pacific region.