Seoul: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's recent remarks indicating openness to engage with the United States under certain conditions have revived hopes for a potential summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim. However, the possibility of addressing Pyongyang's nuclear issue through such diplomacy remains uncertain.
According to Yonhap News Agency, during a significant parliamentary session, Kim expressed willingness for dialogue with the U.S., contingent upon the U.S. abandoning its demand for North Korea's denuclearization. Kim also mentioned having a "good memory" of Trump, in a rare public reference to the American president. This comes as Trump is set to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea's Gyeongju from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1, where a meeting with Kim is anticipated.
Rob Rapson, a former acting U.S. ambassador to South Korea, commented on the situation, noting that diplomatic engagement between Trump and Kim is likely during or around the APEC summit. He suggested that if a meeting does not occur then, it might happen early next year during a possible Trump visit to Beijing.
Andrew Yeo of the Brookings Institution highlighted that Kim's remarks were the clearest indication of his willingness to meet Trump. He suggested that while a brief encounter at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) may occur during Trump's visit to Seoul for APEC, substantive talks are unlikely.
The personal diplomacy between Trump and Kim during Trump's first term included three meetings, starting with a landmark summit in Singapore in June 2018. This summit led to a statement committing to the "complete denuclearization" of the Korean Peninsula and a bilateral agreement to improve relations.
Seth Bailey from the U.S. State Department reiterated the administration's commitment to the principles of the 2018 summit. Yet, it remains unclear if Trump can maintain Kim's commitment to denuclearization, especially as Kim has ruled out negotiating away North Korea's nuclear program.
The potential renewed summitry comes as North Korea relies more on Russia for support, reducing its interest in dialogue with Washington amid eased international sanctions.
Rapson expressed skepticism about how closely a possible Trump-Kim agenda would align with past U.S. policy focused on denuclearization. He noted that nuclear diplomacy with North Korea is "unfinished business" for Trump, which could aid his Nobel Prize aspirations.
Yeo suggested that if talks happen, Trump might prioritize risk mitigation over denuclearization, though the administration remains committed to North Korea's full denuclearization. He emphasized the necessity for any denuclearization goal to be a long-term aspiration.
As anticipation builds for possible diplomacy between Trump and Kim, analysts emphasize South Korea's need to ensure involvement in peace efforts on the Korean Peninsula. Rapson noted that South Korea's engagement with North Korea would largely depend on the Trump-Kim dynamic and Trump's vision for Seoul's role.
Patrick Cronin from the Hudson Institute speculated that Trump and Kim might focus on a peace agreement ending the Korean War, potentially increasing South Korea's security burdens.
Kim's speech reaffirmed a hard-line stance against inter-Korean dialogue under South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, who seeks to restore cross-border relations. However, Yeo pointed out past fluctuations in inter-Korean relations, suggesting the possibility of future engagement contingent on Trump-Kim developments.
In response to Kim's statements, South Korea's presidential office voiced support for U.S.-North Korea dialogue and reaffirmed efforts for a "nuclear free" Korean Peninsula.