Washington: The United States' efforts to enhance operational flexibility of its troops in South Korea and rework the bilateral alliance to deter China may figure prominently in the upcoming summit between Presidents Lee Jae Myung and Donald Trump, analysts said Tuesday, noting their summit could be an "inflection point" in the two countries' relationship.
According to Yonhap News Agency, the White House meeting, set for Aug. 25, will be a chance for Trump to highlight to the domestic gallery Seoul's recent investment pledges and cooperation in shipbuilding and other sectors, but potentially divisive security issues, including defense "burden-sharing," could expose fault lines in the alliance, the analysts said.
The first summit between the leaders will come at a crucial juncture, when Seoul and Washington are exploring ways to "modernize" their alliance with an apparent focus on expanding the scope of its role beyond the Korean Peninsula to help counter broader regional challenges, including an assertive China.
Rob Rapson, former acting U.S. ambassador to South Korea, told Yonhap News Agency via email that the upcoming summit could be a major inflection point for the alliance and overall relationship depending on how both sides manage it, especially President Trump.
Seoul's presidential office has expressed awareness of the summit's implications for the alliance, stating that the two leaders will discuss ways to develop the security partnership into a "future-oriented, comprehensive strategic alliance" in response to the "shifting international security and economic environment."
Andrew Yeo, the SK-Korea Foundation chair at the Brookings Institution's Center for East Asia Policy Studies, anticipated that "strategic flexibility" of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) and alliance modernization will be the "key words" from this summit.
Greater strategic flexibility would mean the use of U.S. troops in South Korea for a wider range of expeditionary operations, including roles for regional contingencies -- a move farther away from their traditional focus on deterring North Korean threats.
For Washington, USFK strategic flexibility -- as part of efforts to "modernize" the alliance -- is a crucial element to rebalance its military assets to optimize deterrence against China at a time of Beijing's military buildup and its increasing collaboration with North Korea and Russia.
However, its pursuit of strategic flexibility puts Seoul in a challenging geopolitical position as Lee has adopted a diplomatic approach that values the alliance with the U.S. as the "foundation" for Korea's foreign and security policy, while still pursuing stable ties with China.
Defining the scope and conditions of USFK strategic flexibility may lead to disagreements, particularly if the conversation revolves more specifically around a Taiwan contingency, Yeo noted.
Rapson raised questions over the extent to which Trump would pursue USFK strategic flexibility, considering that Trump has touted his "very good" relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping and sought to reach a trade deal as part of his drive to reduce America's trade deficits and boost domestic manufacturing.
The summit will unfold against the backdrop of last month's trade deal between Seoul and Washington. Under the deal, the Trump administration agreed to lower "reciprocal" tariffs on Korea to 15 percent from the proposed 25 percent in return for Seoul's commitment to investing US$350 billion in the U.S. and purchasing $100 billion worth of U.S. energy, among other pledges.
Patrick Cronin, the chair for Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, told Yonhap News Agency that Trump is likely to use the summit to publicize that deal to the American audience as a key win from his America First policy drive.
Cronin also added that Lee should aim to earn credit for expanding trade and investment in strategic sectors, while pressing Trump for a commitment to "sustained leader-to-leader problem-solving."
In addition, Cronin advised Lee to avoid asking for what he will not be able to get: a guarantee of U.S. predictability, which the scholar described as an "asset President Trump deliberately guards as a source of negotiating leverage."
The summit could also serve to work out the specifics of the countries' trade deal or at least give more clarity on the specifics, observers noted. Tom Ramage, an economic policy analyst at the Korea Economic Institute of America, said the meeting may provide clarity on sensitive components of the trade deal such as agricultural issues surrounding beef and rice.
The summit could also be a chance for Korea to push for further alignment on economic issues, including those concerning automotive and other key industrial sectors, Ramage said.
On North Korea, analysts expect that both Lee and Trump could reiterate their desire to engage with Pyongyang, while touching on the lingering question of whether the reclusive state would respond to any diplomatic outreach at a time when it enjoys closer ties with Russia and China.
Lee should use the Summit to engage Trump's interest in restarting diplomacy with North Korea first-hand, but also receive affirmation from Trump that the U.S. will coordinate with the ROK before engaging with the DPRK, Yeo said.
At a personal level, the summit is expected to be an opportunity for the leaders to build rapport as Seoul seeks to deepen the partnership with the Trump administration on security, economic, and other fronts.
Finding personal rapport with President Trump will be critical for Lee, especially in the context of other country leaders' visits to the White House which evolved into criticism sessions, Ramage said.
Rapson noted the need for Lee and his team to prepare for "all eventualities" that could emerge at the summit, given Trump's propensity for going off script.