Washington: After Presidents Lee Jae Myung and Donald Trump signaled their shared desire to reengage with North Korea during their summit this week, the question of when to open the door for dialogue will hinge on Pyongyang's decision, experts said.
According to Yonhap News Agency, during their White House summit on Monday, Trump voiced hope to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un this year, while Lee has expressed his intention to reengage with Pyongyang to reduce cross-border tensions and promote peace on the Korean Peninsula.
The leaders showed their willingness for diplomacy with the North amid speculation that Pyongyang's appetite for engagement with either Seoul or Washington has lessened, if not evaporated entirely, given that it now relies on Moscow for food, fuel, military support, technology, and other assistance. "How to open a door with North Korea is going to be a big question ... North Korea will decide when the door is unlocked and open," former U.S. Forces Korea Commander Vincent Brooks said during a podcast hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
"I've found them directly to be easy to work with when they want to be, and impossible to work with, mostly the other time because they choose not to be," he added. The retired general anticipated that there will be "some door opening" this fall or later. "It probably won't be any earlier than October (or) November. If then, after the U.N. General Assembly, after a few more pieces fall in international relations," he said.
Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the CSIS, also said that the North will decide when it wants to resume dialogue. Touching on the leaders' discussions on North Korea, Cha said that Lee effectively drew Trump into a conversation about the North by "pushing the two buttons," which tapped into Trump's desire to become a "peacemaker" and piqued his interest in real estate development.
On the trade and investment front, Cha said that "pressure is now on the Seoul government" to reach an agreement with the United States over specifics of an investment fund under last month's bilateral framework trade deal. Under the broad-brush trade deal, the Trump administration agreed to lower "reciprocal" tariffs to 15 percent from the proposed 25 percent in return for South Korea's commitment to investing US$350 billion in the United States and purchasing $100 billion worth of U.S. energy, among other commitments.
But there are unresolved issues regarding the investment fund, including differences over how to share profits from the fund. Cha anticipated an agreement on the investment fund between Seoul and Washington could only come after Japan reaches an agreement with the Trump administration on its own investment scheme.
On China, Brooks pointed out that both Lee and Trump talked about approaching China with a "positive" outlook during the summit. "I hope that China will take from this ... that it was not a threatening meeting as they might have anticipated it could have been if they were the subject of all negative comments," Brooks said.
In the lead-up to the summit, the China issue was expected to pose a major test of Lee's "pragmatic" approach that values the alliance with the U.S. as the "foundation" of Seoul's foreign and security policy, but still leaves open room to maintain stable relations with China, the top geopolitical rival of the U.S. Cha took note of Lee's CSIS address in which he said that unlike in the past, South Korea is now in a situation where it can no longer embrace an approach under which Seoul prioritizes the United States for security while cherishing close ties with China for economic cooperation.