Seoul: South Korea's exports are expected to increase by 1.8 percent to reach US$697 billion in 2025, according to a projection by a Seoul-based trade association. This forecast comes amid challenges arising from former U.S. President Donald Trump's second term beginning in January.According to Yonhap News Agency, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) has predicted that for 2024, the country's exports will reach $685 billion, marking an 8.4 percent increase from the previous year. This growth is anticipated to be driven by robust shipments of chips and automobiles. Although this figure falls short of the government's annual target of $700 billion, it would still mark the highest tally if realized.For the year 2025, KITA forecasts that exports will grow by 1.8 percent from the estimated $685 billion of 2024 to $697 billion. Imports are also expected to rise by 2.5 percent on-year to $654 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $43 billion. However, the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics a nd Trade had earlier projected a 2.2 percent on-year growth in exports for 2025, anticipating a total of $700 billion, driven by the strong performance of premium semiconductor products.KITA has identified information technology products, particularly semiconductors and wireless communication devices, as likely leaders in export growth for 2025. The demand for chips is expected to rise due to the expansion of AI-driven industries, such as AI computers, mobile devices, autonomous vehicles, and defense-related AI developments.Despite this positive outlook, the automobile sector may face challenges. Global economic sluggishness and uncertainty surrounding tariff policies under Trump could negatively impact automobile exports, according to KITA. Due to a high base effect from 2024, automobile exports are projected to decline by 1.9 percent on-year in 2025.Strengthened environmental regulations in major markets like the European Union and the expansion of protectionism in the United States may push South Kor ean companies to increase overseas production, potentially reducing export volumes. Cho Sang-hyun, head of KITA's international trade research unit, emphasized that the high tariff policies of a second Trump administration pose significant risks to South Korean exports, potentially dampening their growth momentum. Cho noted that China's supply glut would have been a primary concern if not for Trump's reelection.
- October 12, 2026
