Seoul: South Korea's exports are anticipated to increase by 2.2 percent on-year in 2025, primarily fueled by the strong performance of premium semiconductor products. However, potential changes in U.S. trade policies may hinder this growth, as reported by a state-run think tank.According to Yonhap News Agency, the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) released a report indicating a deceleration from the estimated 8.4 percent growth for 2024. The report suggests that although exports are expected to slow due to the base effect, the recovery of major IT sectors, including semiconductors, will continue to drive outbound shipments. The country's trade surplus is projected to reach US$48.7 billion, slightly increasing from the projected $47.4 billion for the current year.The report also highlights concerns that the new Donald Trump administration's comprehensive tariff policies could negatively impact South Korea's automobile shipments to the United States, significantly affecting overall e xports. Trump has proposed tariffs ranging from at least 10 percent to as high as 20 percent on all imported goods.The KIET further states that the slowing demand in major export destinations and increased overseas production are projected to lead to a 2.7 percent decrease in exports by the automobile sector, including auto parts.Despite these challenges, the think tank offers a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, forecasting an 8.5 percent on-year growth due to rising demand for IT products amid improving consumer sentiment and a recovery in global chip prices. Conversely, exports of batteries are expected to decrease by 6.7 percent on-year in 2025, attributed in part to a slowdown in global demand for electric vehicles.
- October 12, 2026
