Seoul: South Korea may need to discuss with the United States allowing U.S. troops stationed on its soil to be deployed elsewhere in the region, despite the political sensitivity of the issue, if it wants to avoid a potential drawdown of American forces, a U.S. expert has said. Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, made the remarks, saying that the bilateral alliance could face growing strain under the second Donald Trump administration focusing more on deterring an assertive China, while seeking to reduce its contributions to protecting its allies.
According to Yonhap News Agency, Cooper emphasized the necessity of discussing "strategic flexibility" to manage potential troop withdrawals from the Korean Peninsula. He acknowledged the political risks involved for Seoul but deemed the discussion unavoidable unless South Korea is prepared to accept a significant reduction in U.S. military personnel.
The concept of "strategic flexibility" involves the potential relocation of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) as Washington crafts a new defense strategy prioritizing deterrence against China's assertiveness and urging allies to contribute more to their defense. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that the Pentagon is considering withdrawing about 4,500 troops from the USFK, which could affect a brigade-level unit.
Cooper highlighted the urgency of the troop withdrawal issue, noting a high likelihood of the Trump administration reducing its military presence in Korea. He warned that such a move could undermine the alliance, as the decision to withdraw or maintain troops has a clear-cut impact.
While a reduction in U.S. forces is possible, Cooper suggested that the Trump administration might also demand increased financial contributions from Seoul through renegotiations of the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), which determines South Korea's share of costs for maintaining the USFK. Cooper advised that South Korea might need to make concessions in these negotiations.
Additionally, Cooper projected potential U.S. pressure on South Korea to increase its defense spending, possibly up to 5 percent of its GDP, mirroring demands made to European allies. He acknowledged the political challenges this would pose for South Korea, yet highlighted the Trump administration's tendency to overlook domestic politics in foreign nations.
Cooper expressed concern about a potential "risk of decoupling" in the U.S.-South Korea alliance, with the Trump administration prioritizing relations with other Asian nations such as Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and India. He noted that Washington policymakers may not view South Korea as a key ally for their top priorities in Asia.
To navigate these challenges, Cooper advised the South Korean government, under Lee Jae Myung, to remain closely aligned with Washington, particularly through high-level discussions. He stressed the importance of open communication between the two governments, albeit behind closed doors, to maintain the alliance.