Seoul: A U.S.-based think tank, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has highlighted South Korea’s hesitance in countering an assertive China and the potential military burdens on the United States due to its alliance with Seoul. However, the report also underscores the benefits of South Korea’s chipmaking and other capabilities to the Seoul-Washington partnership.
According to Yonhap News Agency, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace released a report titled “Legacy or Liability? Auditing U.S. Alliances to Compete with China.” This report evaluates the costs and benefits of the U.S.’ alliances with seven countries, including South Korea, Japan, Australia, the Philippines, France, Germany, and Britain, in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition.
The report analyzes these alliances across eight critical areas, such as providing military support to the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific, preventing the spread of advanced technology to China, and offering alternatives to China-based chip prod
uction sources. Other areas include controlling financial investments that could enhance China’s military capabilities, sourcing critical minerals, co-producing key weapons systems with the U.S., supporting U.S. global order preferences, and maintaining influence with the Global South.
The document notes South Korea’s reluctance to leverage its economic and military power against China but recognizes the country’s significant chip manufacturing and other nonmilitary capabilities that fortify the alliance. This comes as Washington and Seoul aim to modernize their long-standing alliance amid escalating Sino-U.S. tensions.
While South Korea requires substantial U.S. military investment and poses a risk of entanglement in potential conflicts, particularly with North Korea, the report acknowledges the limited contributions of South Korea towards broader U.S. military objectives in the region despite its economic strength. However, it also emphasizes South Korea’s small steps towards strengthening its relationshi
p with the U.S. and Japan in response to China’s rise.
The mutual defense treaty between the U.S. and South Korea primarily focuses on defending against North Korean aggression, and the report asserts that acting on the U.S. security commitment should not be seen as entanglement. Nonetheless, the U.S. commitment involves considerable costs and risks, especially as North Korea advances its nuclear capabilities.
The report warns of significant risks associated with a potential war on the Korean Peninsula, including indirect or direct conflict with China, North Korean attacks on Japan, possible nuclear weapon use, and even a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
On a positive note, the report highlights South Korea’s pivotal role in reinforcing semiconductor manufacturing supply chains. As the second-largest semiconductor producer globally, South Korea dominates the dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) and NAND flash markets, essential for artificial intelligence and other applications.
Additionally, Korea’s r
ole in U.S. critical mineral interests is noted, particularly in producing advanced batteries, electronics-grade silicon, and high-purity tungsten for military uses. In categories related to semiconductor and critical mineral supply chains, and technology investment restrictions, South Korea is deemed “very important.” In contrast, it is considered “somewhat important” in other aspects.
In comparison, Japan is described as “very important” across most categories, except in the co-development of military technology and weapons systems with the U.S., where it is deemed “somewhat important.”