Washington: A U.S. expert said Thursday that he is not ruling out the possibility of a change in the U.S. force posture in South Korea in the next three years, amid speculation that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration could seek a troop reduction in an adjustment to better counter Chinese threats.
According to Yonhap News Agency, Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made the remarks during a podcast on a recently released joint fact sheet on security and trade agreements between Seoul and Washington, as well as a joint communique from the allies' defense ministerial talks.
The communique from the Security Consultative Meeting earlier this month has reinforced speculation about the possibility of a troop drawdown in Korea, as it omitted what had been a boilerplate phrase underlining the U.S.' commitment to maintaining the "current" force level of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). "I would not rule that out ... some change in the force posture on the (Korean) Peninsula in the next three years," Cha said.
The talk of a possible USFK troop cut has emerged as Seoul and Washington seek to "modernize" the bilateral alliance in a move expected to broaden the operational scope of USFK beyond the Korean Peninsula in the face of China's growing assertiveness. Observers have anticipated that to help counter Chinese threats, the U.S. military could strengthen Air Force and Navy components of USFK, and reduce its Army portion, given that naval and aerial assets might play a central role in China-related contingencies.
Cha echoed that view, stating that under modernization, there might not be a need for a large number of ground troops on the peninsula. The Army accounts for the largest portion of USFK, followed by the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, as the current USFK force structure has been entrenched with a primary focus on countering evolving North Korean threats rather than challenges beyond the Korean shores.
Touching on Trump's approval for Seoul's push to secure nuclear-armed submarines, Cha said that China may react with "economic coercion" down the road. The U.S. approval has given rise to speculation that Washington might try to leverage South Korean submarines, once built, to keep China in check. Cha expressed certainty that Chinese economic coercion against South Korea would occur, noting that Beijing previously sanctioned five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean, a major South Korean shipbuilder engaged in shipbuilding cooperation with America.
"I'm 100 percent certain that once the details of the submarine deal ... once they decide what they are going to do, they will target something on Korea to try to push them off of this," Cha stated.
Commenting on diplomacy with North Korea, Cha mentioned that Trump may want to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un next year, when Trump is expected to visit China for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He noted that Trump's objective for possible engagement with Kim would be to declare peace and formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, but "how he gets there is completely unpredictable."