Seoul: Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election has stoked fears about the future of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, rather than raising hopes for it. Such a troubled reaction to the U.S. election outcome is not a South Korea-specific phenomenon. Other U.S. allies in Asia and Europe are also wary of the U.S. election’s possible fallout on their economies and foreign policies. Trump’s policy slogan, “America First,” is a source of their concern. When he takes office in January, he is highly likely to push around his country’s allies — not to mention China, which the Trump campaign identified as the greatest threat to the U.S. — to contribute more, if not sacrifice themselves, to help the U.S. maximize its interests.
According to Yonhap News Agency, putting America first at the expense of allies’ sacrifice is neither sustainable nor workable. The South Korea-U.S. alliance will remain strong only when the two sides seek joint gains. Fortunately, Seoul and Washington need
each other more than ever. The two sides need to fulfill their commitments to the alliance to bring the desired results. The U.S. president-elect will certainly add pressure on Seoul to pay more for the U.S. troops stationed in the country. The survival of the South Korea-U.S. defense-cost sharing deal, concluded in October to increase South Korea’s contribution by 8.3 percent to US$1.47 billion in the first year, remains uncertain. During the campaign rally, Trump called for a hike nearly nine times higher, suggesting $10 billion as an appropriate amount to keep U.S. forces in South Korea.
To realize “America First,” Trump will also add pressure on South Korea to carry more of the burden to keep the Indo-Pacific region safe, given that burden-sharing is a central part of his defense strategy. A nightmare situation will unfold if the U.S. refuses to defend Taiwan were its sovereignty to be challenged by China. If this happens, Seoul will be asked to choose between Washington and Beijing. Even during peacetim
e, Seoul could face pressure to clarify its stance on Taiwan as Trump hinted at cutting U.S. defense costs for Taiwan.
According to Project 2025, a controversial plan drafted by the Heritage Foundation to overhaul the U.S. government to promote a conservative agenda, the U.S. will make China’s subordination of Taiwan or other U.S. allies in Asia more difficult, but should do this “at a level of cost and risk that Americans are willing to bear.” Trump distanced himself from Project 2025, but his campaign pledges that were summarized in Agenda 47 share a lot with the plan.
The Yoon Suk Yeol government should chart a post-U.S. election strategy based on flexible thinking and wisdom. Yoon needs to sit down with his aides in the presidential office as well as Cabinet ministers to navigate all possible options that can help Seoul adjust to the forthcoming Trump administration smoothly. Among others, the Yoon government must explore in which areas the two sides can cooperate to produce mutually beneficial outcomes
. Certainly, there are areas with much room for bilateral cooperation with the U.S. to create a win-win situation. Shipbuilding and maritime defense for instance show strong potential. The fall of the shipbuilding industry has emerged as a grave security threat to the U.S. as China steps up its maritime ambitions. China has risen to the world’s top shipbuilding and shipping nation, having 230 times more shipbuilding capacity than the U.S. The U.S. is looking to South Korea as a partner to help rebuild its shipbuilding industry. U.S. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro’s trips to South Korea and Japan in February and March came against this backdrop.
The alliance works when all involved sides understand they need each other. But it will fail when either side tries to take advantage of the others for its own sake. Trump 2.0 should be an era where Seoul and Washington rediscover their counterparts and strive to seek mutual gains. Trump’s “America First” should be implemented in a manner that can also benefit South K
orea.